Abstract
We originally sought to evaluate our hypothesis that most claims about the usage of AI were overstated. However, upon closer inspection of the data, we found that not only are the claims not overstated, they are understated.
the size of search worldwide. 4-5x larger than web-only reports
monthly AI sessions worldwide. 5.4B in the US, +300% YoY
of AI usage on mobile apps. Web-only estimates miss 4-5x
total search increase worldwide. The pie is getting bigger
ChatGPT share of search traffic. Google down to 71%
larger outside the US. Most reports miss the global picture
Monthly Sessions: Search Engines vs. AI (Worldwide)
AI vs. Search
Monthly sessions of AI are now 56% the size of search worldwide — 4-5x larger than previous web-only reports suggested. Usage has plateaued globally since July 2025, but continues to grow rapidly in the US.
When ChatGPT launched in November 2022, it caused dramatic changes in the landscapes of AI, search, and marketing. After only 2 months, ChatGPT became the fastest-growing consumer app in history. As of October 2025, ChatGPT sees over 800M weekly active users and 2.5B daily prompts.
Over the last 100 years, a series of technological innovations has transformed society faster than at any other time in history. The discovery of nuclear energy, the invention of computers, the internet, search engines, social media, mobile phones and apps, and now AI. Each technological innovation has a different adoption lifecycle and timeline. Early in the adoption curve of a new technology shift, people attempt to predict the adoption curve. With each new technological innovation, many people predictably overstate and exaggerate the adoption and rate of change.
In the 2000's, search and the internet were the largest technological shifts, with Google at the forefront of this change. Google first launched in 1998. 28 years later, Alphabet, Google's parent company, is now one of the 10 most valuable companies in history with a market cap of over $3 Trillion. For years, Google has dominated the search engine market with 88% market share. But many people now use AI to search and discover. Products like ChatGPT, Perplexity, Grok, and Claude directly compete with Google.
We have seen this movie before. In 2008, Apple introduced the ability to create mobile apps. Early in the adoption lifecycle of mobile apps, many people claimed that mobile apps would soon overtake the web and that the web would eventually die as a result.
Mobile apps did eventually reach the potential that was claimed. But the adoption cycle was overstated early. People continue to use the web, and usage of mobile apps is incremental. The web never died, the pie just got much bigger.
We have always believed the hype around the long-term potential of AI adoption, but we have remained skeptical of claims of how rapid the change is or will be. Many headlines have claimed that Google and search are now dying, caused by the rapid growth of AI.
Some say that AI has the fastest adoption curve of any technological innovation ever. Some claim that AI will overtake search in as little as 1 to 4 years. However, the methodologies of these forecasts are typically not disclosed and simply say, "based on our projections...".
We did not believe the hype and assumed the claims of AI's size and growth curve to be overstated. We originally sought to evaluate our hypothesis that most claims about the usage of AI were overstated, and that usage of AI was smaller and growing more slowly. However, upon closer inspection of the data, we found that not only are the claims that AI may soon overtake search not overstated, they are understated.
Since July 2025, Worldwide visits to AI reached 56% the size of search. Usage of AI has plateaued worldwide since July 2025. However, in the US, it continues to grow rapidly. We do not attempt to forecast the timeline for when AI surpasses search, given the variability of its growth curve. However, given the rapid growth of AI relative to prior technological innovations and the potential that AI has to transform the world, we do expect the use of AI to surpass search in the near future.
Fig. 01 — Monthly Sessions: Search Engines vs. AI (Worldwide)
Fig. 02 — Monthly Sessions: Search Engines vs. AI (US)
In the US, AI usage has reached 34% the size of search. While lower than the worldwide figure, US usage continues to grow rapidly, with sessions increasing over 300% from December 2024 to December 2025.
Previous projections have compared visits to Google Search and web visits to ChatGPT. These analyses and projections are flawed in the following ways:
Fig. 03 — Google Search vs. ChatGPT (US)
In the US, 75% of monthly sessions are on mobile apps compared to 25% on the web.
Fig. 04 — AI Sessions by Surface (Worldwide, Q4 2025)
Fig. 05 — Monthly AI Sessions by Surface (Worldwide)
Fig. 06 — AI Sessions by Surface (US, Q4 2025)
Fig. 07 — Monthly AI Sessions by Surface (US)
OpenAI published a study exploring a dataset of approximately one million deidentified messages from logged-in consumer ChatGPT users between May 2024 and June 2025. Users use LLMs with multiple intents. OpenAI categorized prompts by user intents of Asking (51.6%), Doing (34.6%), and Expressing (13.8%). Since Doing and Expressing intents do not relate to search, we can separate them when comparing AI search to traditional search.
Fig. 08 — ChatGPT Prompts by User Intent
In a separate study published in January 2026, we showed that usage of traditional search engines has not decreased over the last 6 years despite many claims to the contrary.
Fig. 09 — Visits to Search Engines YoY (Worldwide)
Fig. 10 — AI Monthly Sessions by User Intent (Worldwide)
Fig. 11 — AI Monthly Sessions by User Intent (US)
We can combine search and AI Asking prompts to see that the search pie is getting bigger. Since the launch of ChatGPT in November 2022, comparing Q1 2023 vs. Q4 2025, total usage of search via AI and search engines has increased by 26% worldwide.
In the US, total usage increased by 16% over the same period.
Fig. 12 — Monthly Sessions: Search Engines & AI Asking (Worldwide)
Fig. 13 — Monthly Sessions: Search Engines & AI Asking (US)
For years, Google has controlled the search and discovery market. For the first time in over a decade, Google's share has shifted. Worldwide, Google's traffic share has decreased from 89% in 2023 to 71% in Q4 2025. ChatGPT now commands 20% of search worldwide.
In the US, Google's market share decreased from 88% in 2023 to 75%. ChatGPT has 12% traffic share.
Fig. 14 — Share of Search Traffic (Worldwide, Q4 2025)
Fig. 15 — Share of Search Traffic by Surface (Worldwide)
Fig. 16 — Share of Search Traffic (US, Q4 2025)
Fig. 17 — Share of Search Traffic by Surface (US)
Usage of AI is over 7x larger Worldwide than in the US.
Fig. 18 — AI Monthly Sessions (Worldwide vs. US)
ChatGPT dominates AI market share with 89% worldwide. Gemini holds 5%, followed by Perplexity, Grok, and Claude.
Fig. 19 — Sessions by LLM (Worldwide, Q4 2025)
Fig. 20 — Monthly Sessions by LLM (Worldwide)
In the US, ChatGPT holds 86% of AI market share. Gemini holds 6%, followed by Perplexity, Grok, and Claude.
Fig. 21 — Sessions by LLM (US, Q4 2025)
Fig. 22 — Monthly Sessions by LLM (US)
When mobile apps first started, many people assumed a zero-sum bias and claimed that the growth of mobile apps would cause the death of the web. This same claim has been made about the growth of AI, causing the death of search. Just as the web never died, the same is true for search. Search has not declined in 6 years, and there is no evidence that it will.
The zero-sum bias is a cognitive bias where humans assume that gains in one area must come at the expense of losses in another. When a new market emerges, an incumbent market must decline. Sometimes this is true, and other times it is not.
The emergence of Netflix caused the death of Blockbuster. The internet caused the death of the Yellow pages. Therefore, the emergence of mobile apps means the death of the web. People increasingly searching on YouTube, Instagram, and TikTok means the death of Google. And today, the rapid growth of AI will result in the inevitable death of search.
While this narrative sounds compelling, the data tell a different story. The growth of AI is incremental to search. The pie is getting much bigger.
All traffic data in this study are sourced from Similarweb. To evaluate reliability, we performed a correlation analysis between Similarweb estimates and first-party disclosures. The median Pearson correlation coefficient was 0.86, indicating very high agreement between estimated and actual traffic figures.
Mobile app session data are included from Similarweb's app intelligence panel. Because the majority of LLM usage occurs in mobile apps (83% worldwide, 75% in the US), web-only analyses significantly undercount AI usage.
Disclosure: Ethan Smith is CEO of Graphite, a growth agency offering SEO and AEO services. It is in the financial interest of the author to argue that SEO and AI are large and growing. All arguments are supported by data, for which raw data and links to original sources are provided.
